Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Ahmednagar · rainfall trajectory

Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4660012708

How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Ahmednagar locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.

Annual rainfall trend

+17 ± 5 mm/decade

highly significant · p = 0.001

Mann–Kendall τ

0.2

monotonic trend strength · 125-year record

Annual mean

618 mm

interannual CV 56%

Recent 30y − first 30y

+385 mm

long-run shift in annual total

witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 17.6 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC

Seasonal decomposition

Monsoon (JJAS) trend

+15 ± 4 mm/dec

mean 491 mm · 79% of annual

Pre-monsoon trend

-0.9 mm/dec

mean 28 mm

Post-monsoon trend

+1.4 ± 1.6 mm/dec

mean 97 mm

Winter trend

0 mm/dec

mean 2.9 mm

Extremes & distribution

Extreme 1-day rain trend

+0.9 ± 0.6 mm/dec

annual max 1-day mean 63 mm

Dry-day fraction trend

-0.001 /dec

mean 84% of days dry

Seasonality (PCI) trend

-0.07 /dec

Precipitation Concentration Index mean 24

Interannual variability

56%

coefficient of variation (year-to-year)

All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.

Re-witness this trajectory

curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
       "arguments":{"admin_code":466,"cluster_id":4660012708,"include_trajectory":true}}}'

Machine-readable JSON twin →Warming trend →Urbanisation trend →Full dossier →

Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.