Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Kolhapur · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4800002003
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Kolhapur locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
-1 ± 6 mm/decade
not significant · p = 0.925
Mann–Kendall τ
-0.01
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
1,005 mm
interannual CV 30%
Recent 30y − first 30y
+25 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 4.8 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
+6 ± 5 mm/dec
mean 746 mm · 74% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
-3.9 mm/dec
mean 107 mm
Post-monsoon trend
-2.6 ± 2 mm/dec
mean 150 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 3.1 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
-1.4 ± 0.6 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 74 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
0.0 /dec
mean 75% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
+0.17 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 21
Interannual variability
30%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":480,"cluster_id":4800002003,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.