Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Mumbai · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4820000044
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Mumbai locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
+57 ± 13 mm/decade
highly significant · p = 2.3×10⁻⁵
Mann–Kendall τ
0.26
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
2,193 mm
interannual CV 25%
Recent 30y − first 30y
+546 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 9 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
+52 ± 12 mm/dec
mean 2,075 mm · 95% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
0 mm/dec
mean 23 mm
Post-monsoon trend
+4.1 ± 1.5 mm/dec
mean 93 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 2.4 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
+3.5 ± 1.3 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 187 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
-0.001 /dec
mean 73% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
-0.15 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 29.3
Interannual variability
25%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":482,"cluster_id":4820000044,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.