Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Nashik · rainfall trajectory

Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4870001774

How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Nashik locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.

Annual rainfall trend

+9 ± 4 mm/decade

significant · p = 0.030

Mann–Kendall τ

0.13

monotonic trend strength · 125-year record

Annual mean

547 mm

interannual CV 29%

Recent 30y − first 30y

+124 mm

long-run shift in annual total

witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 14 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC

Seasonal decomposition

Monsoon (JJAS) trend

+7 ± 3 mm/dec

mean 433 mm · 79% of annual

Pre-monsoon trend

-0.3 mm/dec

mean 22 mm

Post-monsoon trend

+1.2 ± 1.5 mm/dec

mean 88 mm

Winter trend

0 mm/dec

mean 4.4 mm

Extremes & distribution

Extreme 1-day rain trend

+0.8 ± 0.5 mm/dec

annual max 1-day mean 60 mm

Dry-day fraction trend

-0.001 /dec

mean 84% of days dry

Seasonality (PCI) trend

-0.06 /dec

Precipitation Concentration Index mean 23.6

Interannual variability

29%

coefficient of variation (year-to-year)

All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.

Re-witness this trajectory

curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
       "arguments":{"admin_code":487,"cluster_id":4870001774,"include_trajectory":true}}}'

Machine-readable JSON twin →Warming trend →Urbanisation trend →Full dossier →

Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.