Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Nashik · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4870012708
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Nashik locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
+15 ± 3 mm/decade
highly significant · p = 7.0×10⁻⁶
Mann–Kendall τ
0.27
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
559 mm
interannual CV 27%
Recent 30y − first 30y
+156 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 5 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
+13 ± 3 mm/dec
mean 458 mm · 82% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
0 mm/dec
mean 20 mm
Post-monsoon trend
+2 ± 1.3 mm/dec
mean 76 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 4.9 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
+0.9 ± 0.5 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 55 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
-0.003 /dec
mean 83% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
-0.13 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 23.6
Interannual variability
27%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":487,"cluster_id":4870012708,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.