Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Palghar · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 6650000001
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Palghar locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
-49 ± 16 mm/decade
significant · p = 0.004
Mann–Kendall τ
-0.17
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
2,776 mm
interannual CV 24%
Recent 30y − first 30y
-292 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 11.2 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
-45 ± 16 mm/dec
mean 2,653 mm · 96% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
-0 mm/dec
mean 16 mm
Post-monsoon trend
+0.3 ± 1.7 mm/dec
mean 105 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 2 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
+0.1 ± 1.2 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 186 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
+0.005 /dec
mean 72% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
-0.02 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 29.6
Interannual variability
24%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":665,"cluster_id":6650000001,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.