Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Pune · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4900004635
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Pune locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
-105 ± 18 mm/decade
highly significant · p = 2.7×10⁻⁶
Mann–Kendall τ
-0.28
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
1,469 mm
interannual CV 66%
Recent 30y − first 30y
-518 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 14 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
-101 ± 18 mm/dec
mean 1,274 mm · 87% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
-1.5 mm/dec
mean 56 mm
Post-monsoon trend
-1.9 ± 2.1 mm/dec
mean 136 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 3.2 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
-1.7 ± 0.9 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 92 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
+0.013 /dec
mean 73% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
-0.41 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 24.6
Interannual variability
66%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":490,"cluster_id":4900004635,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.