Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Ratnagiri · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4920005607
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Ratnagiri locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
-21 ± 11 mm/decade
not significant · p = 0.055
Mann–Kendall τ
-0.12
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
1,617 mm
interannual CV 34%
Recent 30y − first 30y
-15 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 11.7 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
-20 ± 10 mm/dec
mean 1,405 mm · 87% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
-1.1 mm/dec
mean 65 mm
Post-monsoon trend
+0.2 ± 2.2 mm/dec
mean 144 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 2.6 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
-0.6 ± 1 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 112 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
-0.004 /dec
mean 73% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
-0.4 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 27.3
Interannual variability
34%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":492,"cluster_id":4920005607,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.