Bhārata Strata · Maharashtra · Solapur · rainfall trajectory
Rainfall & monsoon trend — cell 4960001721
How rainfall has changed over 125 years at this Solapur locality cell — witnessed by IMD, every trend a Theil–Sen slope with its GUM standard error and a Mann–Kendall significance test. Missing is never zero.
Annual rainfall trend
-8 ± 5 mm/decade
not significant · p = 0.147
Mann–Kendall τ
-0.09
monotonic trend strength · 125-year record
Annual mean
685 mm
interannual CV 31%
Recent 30y − first 30y
-81 mm
long-run shift in annual total
witness: tier_q_v1 — IMD gridded rainfall dynamics · 125 years · grid-assign 8.5 km · as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Seasonal decomposition
Monsoon (JJAS) trend
-7 ± 5 mm/dec
mean 520 mm · 76% of annual
Pre-monsoon trend
-0.4 mm/dec
mean 45 mm
Post-monsoon trend
-0.5 ± 1.9 mm/dec
mean 113 mm
Winter trend
0 mm/dec
mean 6.4 mm
Extremes & distribution
Extreme 1-day rain trend
-1.7 ± 0.6 mm/dec
annual max 1-day mean 70 mm
Dry-day fraction trend
+0.0 /dec
mean 84% of days dry
Seasonality (PCI) trend
+0.07 /dec
Precipitation Concentration Index mean 22.7
Interannual variability
31%
coefficient of variation (year-to-year)
All trends are Theil–Sen slopes; ± is the 1σ GUM standard error; significance is Mann–Kendall (τ, p). Source: IMD, 125-year record, as of 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC.
Re-witness this trajectory
curl -s https://api.gridrock.ai/mcp -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-H 'Accept: application/json, text/event-stream' \
-d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"read_witnesses",
"arguments":{"admin_code":496,"cluster_id":4960001721,"include_trajectory":true}}}'Scope: the live MH-36 cube. IMD rainfall dynamics are a pinned, sha-verified standalone witness; this page reads the live engine and never interpolates or back-casts.